Bet systems: is it worth it?

Some considerations on betting methods in probabilistic perspective, for the games of the terrestrial casinos and online casinos.

Tens of billions of neurons burned in search of the perfect bet method. Since the casino games exist, the number of people who, in a more or less intelligent way, has tried to study systems that can beat the bench in a certain way, ensuring a safe gain over time. Starting from the assumption that such systems have not been invented, we make some general considerations on the betting systems, using some asking, forum posts and more that I have encountered by navigating on the net as the starting point.

MARINGAL: triple instead of doubled? The "martingal" method is simply the doubling method, the one that is passed off on the net infallible in online casinos (but really, do you still believe it?). It applies on bets that pay the 2: 1 winnings, such as red or equal to the roulette. Start from a value of 1 unit. If you win, you still bet 1 unit. If you lose, double the episode until the losses suffered. It is mathematically certified that using this method is lost more than playing in a completely random way.

Someone then hypothesized to triple the bet in case of loss, because in this method the return in economic terms (bet * 2) is too low for the risk of losing (about 50%). Could you work the choice to increase the return for individual winnings?

No, it's even worse. In this way already with a negative series of 3-4 strokes the amount to be bet becomes very high and it is extremely easier to reach the limits of your bankroll or those of the table. Rejected with flying colors, do not use it in online casinos or any other place where you can bet!

In some online casino it is possible to run the roulette without betting. Can this be an advantage for the player? If I can turn the roulette without betting, then I can wait for a long series to come out, for example 6 red, and then focus on black and have greater chances of victory. Wrong, this error is known as "Gambler's Fallacy".

The ball of the roulette has no memory, the mathematical probabilities that bait black have nothing to do with the fact that until then it has come out red, these events are completely independent. Someone could object that for the law of large numbers sooner or later it must come out black, and it is true, but 5, 10 or even 15 sorties do not represent "large numbers".

Have you read or heard that someone has studied a method with which to win in casinos or bets, bringing home big earnings? Or he is lucky and is lying on the method, or is just lying. One of the greatest problems related to betting systems is that at a time, due to luck, they are extremely effective. The player thus convinces herself that she has discovered something better than hot water, and begins to aim strongly, especially in online casinos. And when luck ends, here he does not understand how he could have lost so much.

We will never tire of repeating it: the betting systems, especially for online casinos, do not guarantee any win. They can at most limit the margin of the counter if the player uses an optimized mathematical strategy or avoid placing bets in too inconvenient ways, but nothing more. Luck is needed, more than science!

A good method to verify the advantage of the bench in each situation is to use correctly set "gamblingrs", that is, programs that help calculate the probability in different game situations. Here one Gambling Calculars collection of good quality (the site is in English).